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The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 October 21, 2018 — Unexpected "blue wave" seats and 💰💰Democratic cash💰💰💰. + Swing voters and disenfranchisement

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Welcome! I'm G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist and blogger of polls, elections, and
 
October 21 · Issue #11 · View online
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter
Welcome! I’m G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist and blogger of polls, elections, and political science. Happy Sunday! Here’s my weekly newsletter with links to what I’ve been reading and writing that puts the news in context with public opinion polls, political science, other data (some “big,” some small) and looks briefly at the week ahead. Let’s jump right in! Feedback? Drop me a line or just respond to this email. 

This newsletter is made possible by supporters on Patreon. A special thanks to those who pledge the top two tiers is written in the endnotes. If you enjoy my personal newsletter and want it to continue, consider a monthly subscription for early access and regular blogging for just $2.

This Week's Big Question
What does a wide playing field portend for the House midterms?
Democrats have slim chances to win a large number of Republican-held seats. Just look at the number of Likely or Lean Republican seats in my forecasts: According to my number-crunching, there are 95 Republican-held seats that are forecast to be won by less than 10 points by either party, but just 9 Democratic-held seats in the same category.
This wide, 100-seat playing field creates the chance that Democrats win a few fluke upsets in their path to a House majority. For fun, here are what some of those fluke wins would look like (PS: You can simulate your own wacky maps using my data which has been put to great use at 270towin.com):
In this map, Democrats win Montana’s at-large district (they have a 31% chance today) Michigan’s 1st (a 17% chance) and 7th (25%), North Carolina’s 8th (21%), etc. The point being: all of these districts are projected to be Republican holds, but due to the nature of probability Democrats could easily win them.
Odds are that Democrats will win some unexpected seats. Keep in mind the this doesn’t guarantee a Democratic victory; they have just a 76% chance of doing so, per my forecast, and an 85% chance in the 538 model (which was tracking similarly unless the recent about of tsunami Dem wave fundraising reports). With 15 days left until the midterms, in which of these seats do you think the Democrats or Republicans will win unexpected victories?
Politics and Election Data
Democrats are winning voters’ wallets—and perhaps their hearts as well - Daily chart
Who’s Winning the Social Media Midterms?
For a Change, Democrats Seem Set to Equal or Exceed Republicans in Turnout - The New York Times
Democratic Whac-a-Mole and Senate Math Paradoxes
Grant Gregory
A thread on @WholeFoods and elections: @Redistrict recently wrote that Dems will perform the best in areas that are geographically close to Whole Foods (WF). I decided to map/calculate the # of Whole Foods by congressional district to test his theory on WF and elections (1/9) https://t.co/9fw6qTjOZZ
12:19 PM - 21 Oct 2018
It’s not just the young: Middle-age voters aren’t showing up at the polls like they used to - The Washington Post
Jason Pipkin
Hey folks - updated The Spreadsheet this weekend! Now featuring forecasts from @538, @0ptimusPredicts, @gelliottmorris, @databyler and newly added models from @rudnicknoah and @ForecasterEnten. (In addition to expert ratings and the @PredicIt markets) https://t.co/iTraMmtVdx
4:09 PM - 21 Oct 2018
Polls can be wrong - Vox
Other Data and Cool Work
Temporary economic downturns have long-lasting consequences - Daily chart
Massive Twitter data release sheds light on Russia’s Trump strategy - POLITICO
Political Science & Survey Research
The Kavanaugh saga reminded Republicans of a big reason to vote in November: Stopping Democrats - The Washington Post
Opinion | How to Win Swing Voters (and How to Lose Them) - The New York Times
“This paper measures a “grandstanding score” for each statement that committee members make based on its intensity of opinion-giving and identifies which types of members of Congress and committees tend to use hearings to make their points. I argue that committee members grandstand in hearings to offset their limited legislative power. My findings suggest that such grandstanding behavior is more common among minority members under a unified government, and non-chair members of powerful committees, and in committees with jurisdiction over policies that the president wields primary power, such as foreign affairs and national security.”
What I'm Reading and Working On
You’ll see…
Thanks!
Thanks for reading. I’ll be back again next week! In the meantime, follow me online or reach out via email. I’d love to hear from you!
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