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The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 October 7, 2018 — Kavanaugh is confirmed. What happens next? + Democratic turnout and polarization of midterm issues

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Welcome! I'm G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist and blogger of polls, elections, and
 
October 7 · Issue #9 · View online
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter
Welcome! I’m G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist and blogger of polls, elections, and political science. Happy Sunday! Here’s my weekly newsletter with links to what I’ve been reading and writing that puts the news in context with public opinion polls, political science, other data (some “big,” some small) and looks briefly at the week ahead. Let’s jump right in! Feedback? Drop me a line or just respond to this email. 

This newsletter is made possible by supporters on Patreon. A special thanks to those who pledge the top two tiers is written in the endnotes. If you enjoy my personal newsletter and want it to continue, consider a monthly subscription for early access and regular blogging for just $2.

This Week's Big Question
How does the Kavanaugh confirmation impact the midterms?
With Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court — and with it known that his presence on the bench will almost certainly make the high court more conservative than it is now — the big question this week changes from how his hearings impacted the midterms to how his confirmation does. I have no comprehensive answer for this yet (mostly due to a lack of data) but do have questions to which I am seeking answers over the next few weeks:

  1. Republicans saw a surge in mobilization over the past few weeks. Now that they have succeeded in getting what they want, will that increase disappear?
  2. Will the legitimate threat of a judicial reversal of the court’s ruling in Roe v Wade catalyze a movement left among college-educated white women?
  3. Will concerns over the court’s legitimacy further motivation the #Resistance backlash to the GOP?

I’ll be using public opinion polling to assess these questions, but if you have data to share do send it my way!
Politics and Election Data
Turnout in this year’s U.S. House primaries rose sharply, especially on the Democratic side
The War That Never Ends
Battle for the House Has a Wide Range of Possible Outcomes
Poll: Amid Kavanaugh Confirmation Battle, Democratic Enthusiasm Edge Evaporates
Millennial Men And Women Are Divided On Race And Gender Issues, New Poll Finds
The Meaning of "Socialism" to Americans Today
Trump Gets Negative Ratings for Many Personal Traits, but Most Say He Stands Up for His Beliefs Trump Gets Negative Ratings for Many Personal Traits, but Most Say He Stands Up for His Beliefs
How Kavanaugh Could Boost Turnout
Other Data and Cool Work
Gender parity in science is an uphill struggle Gender parity in science is an uphill struggle
Gamblers give a 40% chance that Brexit’s deadline arrives with no deal Gamblers give a 40% chance that Brexit’s deadline arrives with no deal
Political Science
A sign of the times? Weak and strong polarization in the U.S. Congress, 1973–2016
What I'm Reading and Working On
I am, of course, reading Steve Kornacki’s new The Red and The Blue: The 1990s and the Birth of Political Tribalism. If you want to know more about how Newt Gingrich ruined bipartisanship, read my former professor Sean Theriault’s The Gingrich Senators: The Roots of Partisan Warfare in Congress.

Thanks!
Thanks for reading. I’ll be back again next week! In the meantime, follow me online or reach out via email. I’d love to hear from you!
A Special Thank-you Note to Patrons
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