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The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 September 16, 2018 — Democrats could win a majority of governor's mansions. + the feasibility of third parties, "economic anxiety" among Trump voters

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Welcome! I'm G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist and blogger of polls, elections, and
 
September 16 · Issue #7 · View online
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter
Welcome! I’m G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist and blogger of polls, elections, and political science. Happy Sunday! Here’s my weekly newsletter with links to what I’ve been reading and writing that puts the news in context with public opinion polls, political science, other data (some “big,” some small) and looks briefly at the week ahead. Let’s jump right in! Feedback? Drop me a line or just respond to this email. 

This newsletter is made possible by supporters on Patreon. A special thanks to those who pledge the top two tiers is written in the endnotes. If you enjoy my personal newsletter and want it to continue, consider a monthly subscription for early access and regular blogging for just $2.

This Week's Big Question
Governors’ Mansions: Can Democrats win a majority of states?
Two polls out this week have Democrat Andrew Gillum leading the governor’s race in Florida, probably the state with the most-watched competitive elections — a tough Senate race, a contested governors contest, and a potential for 3 (possibly more) Democratic House pickups heading into the November midterms.
But Florida is not the only race where Democrats are poised to pick up a governor’s mansion; they’re also leading polls healthily in Illinois, Maine, Michigan, and New Mexico, and by slim toss-up margins in Georgia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Nevada. Of course, Democrats might not win in all of these races, but victories in ten would give them control over a majority of state executives nationwide.
As of current polling averages — which are subject to change, likely in the Democratic direction if past midterm fundamentals play out — Democrats should gain about 7 seats half the time, but the possible number of seats gained ranges from 3 to 11 95% of the time. I wrote a quick computer program to simulate the elections in the 16 seats most competitive states.
Though this is what polls say, remember there are other factors to take into account. Eventually, I’ll take a look at what all these factors say for each individual governors mansion. It is worth saying that even if Democrats don’t win 26 or more governor’s races, they will probably have control over a near super-majority of the population.
Politics and Election Data
The polls are coming: Four tips for sorting through the wave of pre-election polls this fall
Forecasting the race for the Senate
House Polls Show Very Close Races but Also Hints of Democratic Strength
Americans Are Shifting The Rest Of Their Identity To Match Their Politics
It's not just CNN's poll. All polling shows Trump's approval rating dropping.
Right-wing anti-immigrant parties continue to receive support in Europe
Other Data and Cool Work
The American middle class is stable in size, but losing ground financially to upper-income families
Higher-education spending is falling
How Facebook Figures Out Everyone You've Ever Met
Life in developing countries continues to improve
Political Science
In the Red: Americans' Economic Woes are Hurting Trump
Religious Trump Voters: How Faith Moderates Attitudes about Immigration, Race, and Identity
Spoiler Alert: Why Americans' Desires for a Third Party Are Unlikely to Come True
What I'm Reading and Working On
I’m writing about the media narrative surrounding ideology and identity politics among the Democrats this week.
Thanks!
Thanks for reading. I’ll be back again next week! In the meantime, follow me online or reach out via email. I’d love to hear from you!
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