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The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter 📊 September 30, 2018 — Impact of the Kavanaugh hearings? + Voter turnout, undecided voters, women & Democratic fundraising

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Welcome! I'm G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist and blogger of polls, elections, and
 
September 30 · Issue #8 · View online
The Crosstab Weekly Newsletter
Welcome! I’m G. Elliott Morris, data journalist at The Economist and blogger of polls, elections, and political science. Happy Sunday! Here’s my weekly newsletter with links to what I’ve been reading and writing that puts the news in context with public opinion polls, political science, other data (some “big,” some small) and looks briefly at the week ahead. Let’s jump right in! Feedback? Drop me a line or just respond to this email. 

This newsletter is made possible by supporters on Patreon. A special thanks to those who pledge the top two tiers is written in the endnotes. If you enjoy my personal newsletter and want it to continue, consider a monthly subscription for early access and regular blogging for just $2.

PS. This week I am back from a short work-induced hiatus. Y'all shared a lot of really interesting work with me over the past few weeks and I’m excited to be back to highlight that again!

PPS. A special announcement: I’m officially a nerd! My online course teaching the R programming language, “Analyzing Polling and Election Data in R” is now available at DataCamp.com! If you’d like to learn how I do my work (but don’t steal my beat, kapiche?) then this is a good place to start.
This Week's Big Question
How will the Kavanaugh hearings affect [politics, the midterms, the gender gap, etc.]?
Boy, this week was rough. I need a beer.
The political world was engrossed in the accusations of sexual assault against SCOTUS nominee Brett Kavanaugh this week, and while the questions above have been asked and several have attempted an answer, I think suggestions of political consequences are premature. Aside from the very clear fact that the confirmation hearings have not decreased the delta between Democratic and Republican voter enthusiasm as was initially theorized, we don’t know much about possible political fallout from the hearings. I’m skeptical that single events cause short-term political rifts with any significant frequency.
However, what the hearings could do is exacerbate the current political trend whereby women are becoming increasingly aligned with the Democratic party and men with Republicans. As I have written, this has also corresponded in an enormous increase in the supply of female candidates in the Democratic party, whereas Republicans are less inclined to demand that women represent them. Frankly, it was hard on Thursday to watch judge Kavanaugh so hysterically accuse Democrats of orchestrating a smear campaign against him and not think that women will see in him, and the GOP judiciary committee leadership, reminders of why the Democrats have issue ownership on women’s issues, just like Trump does.
The broader and longer-lasting consequences of the Kavanaugh hearings will come, of course, if all of last week’s events don’t matter and he is confirmed to the court. The mix of the judge’s ideological extremity and vicious partisanship — which was at full display at Thursday’s hearing — make him a reliable vote for the right, and it is unlikely if any of the court’s other 4 Republican justices would adjust leftward to compensate for that.
Politics and Election Data
Last week, I wrote about women in Democratic primaries and the odds of Brett Kavanaugh being confirmed to the Supreme Court over time. See the next two links two links:
Democrats turn to female candidates in 2018 - Daily chart Democrats turn to female candidates in 2018 - Daily chart
Brett Kavanaugh may have fared better with senators than voters - Daily chart Brett Kavanaugh may have fared better with senators than voters - Daily chart
What We’ve Learned About Undecided Voters Heading Into the Midterms - The New York Times
Democratic House Campaign Outpaces Republicans in Fundraising - Bloomberg
Voter Enthusiasm at Record High in Nationalized Midterm Environment | Pew Research Center Voter Enthusiasm at Record High in Nationalized Midterm Environment | Pew Research Center
Texas Democrats may not get the big turnout they need - CNNPolitics
Patrick Ruffini
It's not just you: Dem candidate vote share has risen a couple of points in NYT Upshot polls, based on comparing recent results to a model built off the first ten polls. https://t.co/OFKKPwrtAV
10:25 PM - 29 Sep 2018
The turnout gap between whites and racial minorities is larger than you think — and hard to change - The Washington Post
Election Update: Why Our Model Thinks Beto O’Rourke Really Has A Chance In Texas | FiveThirtyEight
Do Republican Women Support Kavanaugh? | FiveThirtyEight
Other Data and Cool Work
Migrants contribute more to Britain than they take, and will carry on doing so - Daily chart Migrants contribute more to Britain than they take, and will carry on doing so - Daily chart
How Americans View Women Leaders in Politics and Business | Pew Research Center How Americans View Women Leaders in Politics and Business | Pew Research Center
Political Science
I find little evidence that the relationship between ideology and victory patterns differs for male and female candidates. Neither Republican nor Democratic women experience distinct electoral fates than ideologically similar men. Candidate sex and ideology do interact in other ways, however; Democratic women are more liberal than their male counterparts, and they are advantaged in primaries over Republican women as well as Democratic men.
What I'm Reading and Working On
This week, you’ll be getting a piece from me on redistricting in the print edition of The Economist as well as an update to our forecast of the 2018 House midterms (probably) and a chart on political ideology in western Europe (probably). I’m reading Woodward’s Fear: Trump in the White House and C. Donald Johnson’s The Wealth of a Nation: A History of Trade Politics in America.
Thanks!
Thanks for reading. I’ll be back again next week! In the meantime, follow me online or reach out via email. I’d love to hear from you!
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